Remember the March of the 20th - A review of South Africa and Kenya’s anti-government protests
By: Tete’ Mausse , Doctoral Researcher
“Beware the ides of March” Shakespeare’s famous quote references the month of March’s politically testing and treacherous nature. Africa has had its fair share of ‘the ides’ like 44BC Julius Caesar stabbed; Cecil John Rhodes dies 1902; Tunisian independence 1956; Ghana independence Act 1957; Sharpeville Massacre 1960; Namibian independence 1988; Eritrea begins its war of independence 1988; Sierra Leone civil war 1991. https://www.blackpast.org/global-african-history-timeline/ https://www.historycentral.com/Africa/index.html. This March it promised to have been Africa’s turn when a few African states threatened to shake regional stability by seeking to oust their leaders through mass actions.
South Africa, Kenya, Tunisia, Senegal, and Nigeria called for anti-government pickets on the historically effervescent 20th of March. The demonstrations were planned to express the public frustration with the socio-economic situation. The stage has been set to what human rights lawyer and lecturer Sipho Mantula referred to as “the state vs the people,” further pointing out that the protests are a reminiscent time to assert Africa’s community and human rights.
There were certain commonalities between the protests, yet they differed in their secondary interests and style of execution. The government responses and outcomes also varied depending on the matrix used. Out of all the day’s marches, South Africa and Kenya had the most traction and media response providing the base for a comparative reflection of the March protests.
The Issue
South Africa: The Economic Freedom Front (EFF) ‘on behalf of the people’ took to the streets of South Africa in what was anticipated to be a national shutdown of the country. In previous years, the leader of the movement Julius Malema has been calling for the resignation or ousting of the African National Congress (ANC) and the country’s president Cyril Ramaphosa. This comes after decades-long of the country’s diminishing economy, security, and energy position. Escalating power cuts scheduled as load-shedding rollouts have fatigued the citizenry and are a key signal of a state’s instability. In 2018 Cyril Ramaphosa was elected to the presidential seat with a large campaign that promised “to do better than the past”. 5 years into Cyril’s leadership the country’s economic and energy status is dire. Inflation is on a 13 year high, and per capita income has reduced by 5.6%, the percentage of people living below the poverty line grew to 60% in 2020. The situation has energized the opposition and the people’s call for change in leadership and economic strategy.
EFF leader Julius Malema, EFF national shutdown. Picture: EFF images. 2023
Kenyan main opposition Raila Odinga with South African president Raila Odinga. Picture: Dennis Itumbi. 2023.
Kenya: (Nigeria and Senegal) are principally disputing the presidential process. However, Kenya’s mass movement was augmented by the inflated cost of living and the tribal dynamics of the country. The August 2022 elections delivered an upset to the country’s main ethnic factions-Kikuyu, Luhya & Luo that expected different results. Incumbent President William Ruto closely won the race with 50.5% of the votes over favorite Raila Odinga, a Luo native. A move that Odinga & party vehemently refutes as a stolen election. Ruto’s inauguration was proceeded by high inflation figures and general costs of living. Met with an already disheartened people, Odinga’s UDM seized the opportunity to ‘hold hands with the masses’ and stage an ousting of Ruto from the state house.
The Protests
South Africa pushed for a national shutdown, calling for pickets in all the major cities and the national parliament. Amongst other places in the country, the hubs of Pretoria, Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Durban had demonstrators dance and walk them down the main streets fashioned in red-the EFF colors that signify. Kenya’s movement was dubbed to be a ‘Maandamano’ -literally translating to ‘walking together’ in Swahili- was not a national shutdown but a concentrated effort toward the state house as the presidential base. Compared to South Africa’s countrywide event, Kenya’s front focused on the capital city of Nairobi with a few concentrated disruptions in Odinga’s Kisumu stronghold.
Both campaigns were a one-day event as a conduit for more pickets and potential handshakes. Kenya ended their piquet by advocating for every Monday Maandamano. The question is to what end?
The EFF led South Africa’s march along with other empathetic organizations. In contrast with the anti-Zuma march, other political parties did not participate in this march even though the interests are again shared. South Africa saw higher population numbers than Kenya, but the anticipated Hong Kong figures were not delivered on both ends. The reasons for this are explored in the limitations section of the article. South Africa’s lead time for the day duplicitously drove higher numbers but also gave the government opportunities to limit the crowds. Unlike Kenya South Africa depends on municipal and state-supervised official transportation which can and was influenced to limit the transit of supporters (below insert). Mutually, South Africa and Kenya’s masses attracted their supporters in the activated locations, which mitigated the numbers and subsequent legitimacy.
Transuat coach lines letter of notice to EFF. Visual: EFF images. 2023.
The general demeanor of the protestors was cordial and peaceful. Kenya experienced teargas and rubber bullet mitigations but injuries were avoided. South Africa’s pushback was that of barricades and the deployment of over 3000 defense force troops. Overall, the protests were peaceful with unreported casualties.
Kenyan police force discharges tear gas onto protesters in Nairobi CBD. Picture: UDM images. 2023.
The Limitations
The middle class was digitally present but by remaining away shied the numbers and demographics that would have made the demonstration more impactful. Both governments were then able to capitalize on this and factionalize the protests. The hard times also posed a fear of a total state collapse and mayhem, so a natural containment by the people softened the blow of what materialized.
South Africa is facing many challenges, but the EFF was strategic to clean the message and have two clear points that will resolve the other issues as well. 1. End load shedding and 2. Cyril Ramaphosa’s resignation. Kenya on the other hand started off with leadership gripes and kept adding to the grievances to the extent that the issues became abstract and conflated. From calling for the halting of the appointment of the new election commissioners to reinstate the election win deniers, to the lowering of the cost of living, and the junior school curriculum. The fluxing and trivializing of the issues added to the public disinterest to rally with the movement. Kenya’s protest appeared rushed, uncoordinated and ambitious.
Civil society (CS) in both nations did not participate in mobilizing people and marching the streets. The marches were purely party organized which gave an impression of a political maneuver and not community driven. The EFF took the courtesy to approach civil bodies for support or awareness, but the participation was still lackluster, with many organizations not wanting to be affiliated with the causes of the EFF. Besides a missing CS, the international community’s support was also not present which helped to dampen to agitations of the day. Limiting the marches to one day appeased the long-term threat of a Sub-Saharan spring and immediate results. Prioritizing a peaceful demonstration came with limitations but strategic reputational gains too.
The Gains
South Africa and Kenya’s marches achieved media attention for their respective groups and followings from this month’s staging. By attaching their activities to the chronology of the ‘Ides of March’, the demonstrations will be presumed to have been shifting events along with all the other March events. Whereas during the marches Julius Malema publicly proclaimed that “This is the most successful shutdown in the history of shutdowns”. TimesLIVE’s polls reflect the opposite as 41% asked “what shutdown”, 37% attributed the ‘shutdown’ to the public holiday weekend and 22% agreed that it was a success because it was peaceful. The polls echo the mixed opinions of the protests, neatly summed up by social commentator and radio personality Sol Phenduka “as a successful march but failed lockdown”.
“This is the most successful shutdown in the history of shutdowns”
Whereas the attendance numbers did not deliver, the protests served to reduce the relevance of the ruling governments on the world stage. The media attention was an opportunity to plant a seed into the minds of the African youth that were the most activated and engaged group on social media. There is a sense that the marches helped to reinvigorate the youth’s interest in political issues and inspire hope. In the same way that they offered a continental solidarity moment to voice out concerns.
Holding demonstrations during this period was strategic for both countries because the opposition party’s got to, in Kenya: disrepute the newly sworn in administration; South Africa: effect the urgency to withdraw the governing leadership before the 2024 elections which could grant them 5 more years should they win.
Sipho Mantula called it “the people vs the state” but one would be remise to not - evidently and reminiscently - also characterize it as ‘the youth vs the establishment’. The major takeaway is that the governments of the region have been notified. What awaits is a continued drive towards structural change and a long-awaited deferred justice.